Universität Bonn

Faculty of Agricultural, Nutritional and Engineering Sciences

17. October 2024

Satellite observations indicate regionally misleading wetting and drying trends in CMIP6 model simulations Satellite observations indicate regionally misleading wetting and drying trends in CMIP6 model simulations

Jensen et al. (2024), including IGG scientists Helena Gerdener and Jürgen Kusche, evaluate trends in terrestrial water storage over 1950–2100 in CMIP6 climate models against the IGG GLWS2.0 global reanalysis from assimilating GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite observations into a hydrological model. The results were now published in the journal npj climate and atmopsheric sciences.

Drying (red) and wetting (blue)
Drying (red) and wetting (blue) - Regions of high consensus across 17 CMIP6 models; dark means agreement with GRACE/-FO, light means disagreement with GRACE/-FO in sign of trend. © Laura Jensen et al.
Download all images in original size The impression in connection with the service is free, while the image specified author is mentioned.

 

To account for the different timescales of model simulation and satellite data availability, they identified regions in which the influence of interannual variability is small and observed trends may be considered as representative for longer periods.

CMIP6 models have being used in the 2021 IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6). The new study revealed distinct biases in drying and wetting trends in the CMIP6 models for several world regions. For example, it identified high model consensus for drying in the Amazon, however disagreeing with the observed wetting. In contrast, other regions show a high consensus of models and observations, suggesting qualitatively correctly simulated trends e.g. for the Mediterranean and parts of Central Africa. A lesson learned is thus that a high model agreement, even across various different Earth system models, might still falsely indicate a robust trend in water storage if it is not assessed against available observations. This also underscores the importance of maintaining an adequate observational capacity for measuring water storage change for climate change assessments.

  


 

Wird geladen